Evidence on A.I. Exposure, Earnings, and Workforce Pell

Technological change is reshaping work. Education is changing with it.

Opportunity has always depended on education. As artificial intelligence transforms the economy, it is reshaping the knowledge, skills, and credentials that create economic opportunity.

Opportunity Data is an independent public observatory built from public data. We develop statistical infrastructure, open tools, and transparent analysis that help researchers, policymakers, institutions, employers, and learners understand how technological change is reshaping education, work, and opportunity.

Building open infrastructure from public data.

Explore the tools
1,786
academic programs scored for A.I. exposure
900+
institutions with graduate earnings
51
states and DC tracked for Workforce Pell readiness

Why Opportunity Data Exists

The labor market is changing faster than the systems built to measure it. Administrative records, education data, and emerging A.I. indicators already contain signals about how opportunity is being reshaped, but those signals sit in separate systems designed for compliance, reporting, and institutional use, not for public understanding.

Opportunity Data turns those public resources into indexes, crosswalks, state trackers, and interactive tools that anyone can use and reuse. Rather than producing one-time reports, we build open infrastructure from public data.

Tools

Four interactive toolsets, each grounded in public data sources and reproducible end-to-end.

AI & Labor Market Disruption

AI Exposure Index

Which occupations are most exposed to A.I. automation, and which academic programs feed into them? Three-dimensional scoring across digital intensity, human interaction, and physical work. 772 occupations, 1,786 programs.

Explore the Index
Detailed tables: By Academic Program (CIP) · By Occupation (SOC)
AI Exposure · By State

AI Exposure of Academic Programs by State

How A.I.-exposed is each state's mix of graduates? A completion-weighted map of all 50 states and D.C., built from 5.3 million IPEDS 2023 completions and the A.I. Exposure Index, with credential breakdowns and a findings brief.

Explore the State Map Findings Brief (PDF)
Workforce Pell · Effective July 1, 2026

Workforce Pell

From eligibility screening to state implementation. Approximate the federal earnings test program by program, track each governor's progress in standing up the approval pipeline, and compare the occupation lists states are approving.

Value-Added Earnings Test State Readiness Tracker State Framework Comparison
Program Earnings

Postsecondary Earnings Data

What graduates actually earn at 1, 5, and 10 years, drawn from Census Bureau administrative wage records. Trajectories, within-program variation, and where suppression limits what we can see. 900+ institutions, 33 states, three credential levels.

Explore Earnings Data
By Field of Study

Recent Graduate Outcomes

How 73 bachelor's fields compare on underemployment, unemployment, early-career pay, and the number of graduates, mapped together so you can see both the odds and the scale. New York Fed outcomes paired with IPEDS completion counts.

By Field (Snapshot) BETA Underemployment Over Time BETA
Census PSEO BLS OES O*NET IPEDS College Scorecard NY Fed

Research that builds open infrastructure

Every article, dataset, and visualization contributes to a larger body of open statistical infrastructure for understanding education, work, and opportunity. Interactive analyses paired with published op-eds in national and trade press.

Author Analysis

The Teacher Credential Ladder

June 2026 · Interactive

Does a master's in teacher preparation pay back the cost? PSEO earnings for graduates of CIPs 13.10 (Special Ed), 13.12 (Subject Area/Secondary), and 13.13 (Levels & Methods/Elementary) at BA and MA, paired with NY Fed underemployment and BLS K-12 teacher wages.

View analysis →
Author Analysis

The Childcare Credential Ladder

April 2026 · Interactive

A bachelor's in child development earns about the same as a sub-associate certificate. PSEO earnings for Human Development and Family Studies graduates, paired with BLS OEWS wages and MIT Living Wage data across states.

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State Analysis · Colorado

Colorado's Childcare Credential Ladder

May 2026 · Interactive

Colorado-only cut of the national ladder. PSEO earnings for graduates of 16 Colorado colleges in Human Development and Family Studies, paired with the Colorado Department of Early Childhood's published lead-teacher vs. kindergarten-teacher wage comparison and Child Care Aware of America's 2024 Colorado prices.

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In the press

Opportunity Data research and commentary has been published in The Colorado Sun, Washington Monthly, and Community College Daily, published by the American Association of Community Colleges.

Methodology

How the tools work. Data sources, formulas, scoring, and the limits of what the data can show. Neutral documentation, not commentary.

Technical Note

AI Exposure Index Methodology

April 2026

How the AI Exposure Index is constructed: variable selection from O*NET, dimension scoring for digital intensity, human interaction shield, and physical anchor, and the crosswalk from occupations to academic programs.

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Technical Note

The Limits of PSEO

2026

What the Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes data can and can't tell us about program value. UI coverage gaps, small-cell suppression, and non-random missingness, layered out.

Read methodology →

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